Kyiv’s allies have lifted restrictions on Ukraine attacking targets inside Russia – here’s what that means for the war

The frontlines in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict have largely been bogged down, with little significant movement on either side. It was reported recently that Russian troops had in the eastern sector near Donetsk in one year, at a huge cost in terms of casualties. As a result, both sides have sought different ways of trying to gain a strategic advantage over their opponent.

Air power has long been a recognised way of restoring a . But in Ukraine, neither side has been able to achieve , thanks to the quality of their air defences. So instead, both sides are using drones for “tactical” (small-scale) effect.

At this point, it’s worth focusing on the : tactical, operational and strategic. The chart below, taken from the US Military Review, illustrates how these levels work – operating as a “distinct hierarchy with marginally overlapping areas between the strategic and the operational, and between the tactical and the operational”.

The tactical level is where small actions are planned and executed. At the operational level, major operations and campaigns are planned with a view to achieving strategic objectives. The strategic level involves longer-term ways to achieve the overarching political objectives of a conflict.

Russia’s ability to deploy long-range missiles and longer-range drones (such as the Shahed 136) that can strike targets – both military and civilian – deep inside Ukraine, has given it a strategic advantage.

There are two strategic aims to these strikes. The first is to through its domestic industrial base. The second is to to undermine public morale – although how effective this is has long been a .

Advantage Russia

The prohibition on Ukraine using weapons supplied by its allies to strike targets in Russia has put it at a considerable disadvantage – meaning that Ukraine’s military has been unable to exploit these weapons’ full potential. So, Russia has been able to build a considerable military/industrial base without threat of attack.

But now, the these restrictions by the UK, US and, most recently, Germany will allow Ukraine to attack a wider range of targets and create more strategic difficulties for Russian political and military leadership.

In particular, it’s worth highlighting the recent statement by the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who that Berlin would help Kyiv develop new long-range weapons that can hit targets in Russian territory.

To what extent Ukraine will be able to exploit this greater latitude to attack targets inside Russia remains to be seen. But the prospect of long-range missiles being used against its cities – the German Taurus missiles have a – could give Ukraine a degree of leverage in .

The lifting of these restrictions to make much difference on the ground for some time, though. While theoretically, Ukraine will be able to strike at some of Russia’s military production sites, Russia has dramatically overhauled its . Nato’s top US commander to have recently told a Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia is “on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined”.

No restrictions – for now

It’s also worth noting that both the US and UK signalled their willingness to allow their long-range missiles to strike at missile launchers inside Russia late last year – but on a limited scale and only using domestically produced weapons, in contrast to .

What is different in the most recent announcement is the lifting of restrictions on with weapons provided by western allies, rather than those domestically produced by the Ukrainian defence industry. This is an extension of an by the US and UK, further broadening the targets that can be attacked.

But the relaxation of these restrictions could be reversed very quickly if Ukraine launches large-scale strikes against civilian populations – which could generate highly adverse publicity for Ukraine and the countries that supplied the weapons.

Russia’s targeting of Kyiv in recent weeks has been bitterly criticised by the US president, Donald Trump, who posted on his TruthSocial website recently: “[Vladimir Putin] has gone absolutely crazy. Needlessly killing a lot of people.”

But Kyiv’s allies will also be wary of how Russia may react. Russia has always threatened if Ukraine uses western-supplied weapons to launch attacks within Russia.

Indeed, the political ramifications of the lifting of restrictions are likely to be more consequential than the military outcomes – for now, at least.

, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies,

This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the .

��